08.19.10
Posted in Appeasement of rogues, Iran, Israel, Nuclear proliferation at 1:37 pm by Administrator
The matter of how much time is left before Iran is a nuclear power is, quite rightly, on the national front burner again. Jeffrey Goldberg’s Atlantic Monthly piece about it is garnering lots of discussion.
John Bolton sees an even more urgent scenario, requiring an Israeli response within days rather than the months of which Goldberg writes. Michael Ledeen, with the utmost respect, takes Bolton to task in a Pajamas Media piece. Ledeen harkens back to his longstanding position, that U.S. support for the internal groundswell of opposition to the regime – the Green Movement – would be far more effective than taking out Iran’s nuclear sites militarily.
The main problem with Ledeen’s position is that we missed our best chance to forthrightly side with the Iranian opposition in the wake of the June 2009 rigged election. Thousands were pouring into the streets of Tehran and other cities. An unflinching expression of solidarity from the current U.S. administration would have tipped the balance and put marvelous historical forces in motion. Alas, nearly the opposite occurred. Not only did that strengthen the mullocracy’s hand, it demonstrated, as so much else has, that the regime of the Most Equal Comrade is inherently feckless and will not deviate from that pattern.
So it is, quite simply, not possible to pursue the regime-change route. That window has closed. There will have to come a morning soon, when we all wake and go about our business, and suddenly hear that Israeli jets have begun taking out sites in the Islamic Republic.
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06.10.10
Posted in China, Iran, Nuclear proliferation, Russia, Turkey, UN at 1:11 pm by Administrator
The latest round of Iranian sanctions passed yesterday by the UN Security council do nothing to stop or even slow Iran’s race to nuke-power status. The reasons are the same as they were for previous rounds: They don’t put a direct, hard squeeze on Iran’s ability to function in a basic economic way. We all know why that is: Russia and China aren’t going to jeopardize their oil and gas interests. Plus, now Iran, Turkey and Russia have, with their summit the other day, have basically formalized their regional axis.
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06.01.10
Posted in Iran, Nuclear proliferation at 7:23 pm by Administrator
Remember when policy wonks both inside and outside government used to speak of a “red line,” a point at which the game regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions would change? Remember that the red line was often characterized as the point at which Iran had fuel for a nuclear weapon? Well, according to the IAEA’s latest report, it has enought for two. BN is not the first to point out since the report’s release yesterday that if that’s the IAEA figure, it’s probably a lowball.
And it’s just another news item on the crawler now. One of many hair-raising daily developments that flood the radar screen as a result of the world having assumed it had an infinite amount of time to face the truth. The plain fact is that most of what occurs on the world stage now falls into the category of “unacceptable.”
And still it comes.
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05.25.10
Posted in Iran, North Korea, Nuclear proliferation, State Department cluelessness, World War III at 3:25 pm by Administrator
The first decade of the twenty-first century has been the most tumultuous and hair-raisingly alarming I have wintnessed in my time on earth, which began in the middle of the 1950s. For each and all of the mortal threats to our civilization these past ten years have delivered, there has been an abundance of written examination of warning signs we would have done well to heed.
I think none of these has been more prescient than a 2003 Commentary article by American Enterprise Institute scholar Joshua Muravchik entitled “Facing Up to North Korea.” He takes the reader through the timeline of the Hermit Kingdom’s nuclear ambitions, disregard for the Non-Proliferation Treat, duplicitousness, blackmail and mad brinkmanship starting in the late 1970s. The article came out, mind you, well before the U.S. rounded up North Korea’s neighbors for that ill-advised series of get-togethers known as the Six-Way Talks, at which nothing was accomplished.
As we know, there has been a new round in the cycle of belligerence that began with North Korea’s sinking of the Cheonon in late March. The very latest development in this round is North Korea’s severing of all ties with South Korea, including hosting guest personnel at the Kaesong industrial park. South Korean ships and planes will now have to be more careful than ever not to cross one microinch into North Korean sea lanes or airspace. Even a close brush with borders could be used as an excuse for an accusation for territorial violation. It will now be more difficult than ever to monitor developments in the north.
The last president of the United States (and I choose the word “last” rather than “previous” quite deliberately) caught quite a bit of hell for his Bush Doctrine, which posited that, in our age, the U.S. cannot wait for mortal threats to fully bloom before dealing with them. He was particularly excoriated for acting on that doctrine in the case of the Baathist regime in Iraq.
It’s ironic indeed that that president chose to ignore his own doctrine in the case of a threat that was even more ominous. After all, we didn’t have to rely on patchwork intelligence to determine whether North Korea had nuclear weapons. They told us plainly that they did. Not only that, they tested them twice. Still, Christopher Hill and Condi Rice blathered on about “unhelpful” moves and attitudes and kept convening their silly talks. And here we are, with war a real possibility.
We’ve run out of good cards to play in the Iran situation as well. The deal brokered by Turkey and Brazil have rendered further efforts to impose sanctions meaningless. In fact, Iran has said it will pull out of the arrangement if more sanctions are imposed.
The time to deal with these festering threats in a way that would be sure not to involve mayhem was years ago. Now we have a post-American regime that harbors utopian fantasies as our only bulwark against the two most evil regimes on earth, which are now technologically ready to scorch us should we try to thwart their designs.
Well, I guess God is our very last bulwark, should He deem us worthy of His mercy.
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05.24.10
Posted in Appeasement of rogues, Brazil, China, Corruption of the scientific world, Diciness of Western civilization's survival prospects, Diplomacy - ineffective and effective, Government spending, Iran, National Security, North Korea, Nuclear proliferation, Pakistan, South Korea, Turkey at 12:02 pm by Administrator
Caroline Glick’s Townhall column today demonstrates the interconnectedness of the various and sundry matters vexing us at present.
No one – not South Korea, the U.S. or any international body – is going to do anything substantive in response to the North Korean sinking of the Cheonon.
North Korea completed a successful fusion test recently, meaning it is preparing to add hydrogen bombs to its nuclear arsenal.
All the Turkey-Brazil deal with Iran did was demonstrate the ascendancy of all three countries. It changes nothing about the timeline for Iran being able to make nuclear bombs. That’s plural, and that timeline is measured in months.
Arms of the most lethal sort continue to make their way to Hizbollah in southern Lebanon.
China will build two more nucler reactors in Pakistan.
Why are those with the most to lose acting like their hands are tied in this scenario? Because China cannot be brought on board, not to knock it off with the nuclear projects with Pakistan, not with getting stern with North Korea, not with meaningful sanctions against Iran.
There is this little matter of its financing of the U.S.’s ever-growing debt. And that leads right back to Pennsylvania Avenue, to spending already in place, like the stimulus and socialist health care, as well as the spending in the pipeline, like the banking-reform bill that just passed the Senate, as well as this “infrastructure” monstrosity Congress wants to pass as soon as possible. Let us also not forget cap-and-trade, which refuses to die, no matter how badly “climate science” has been disgraced.
We’re on our own, folks.
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05.21.10
Posted in Brazil, Iran, Nuclear proliferation, Turkey at 12:44 pm by Administrator
Charles Krauthammer says that’s where America finds itself in the age of TCM. And Turkey and Brazil, which are are nations guided by crass opportunism rather than fundamental principles such as freedom, common sense and human dignity as the United States was until recently, are gladly filling the world-leadership vacuum.
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05.18.10
Posted in Appeasement of rogues, Brazil, Iran, Nuclear proliferation at 12:29 pm by Administrator
The agreement inked yesterday that provides for Iran to ship 1200 kilograms of uranium to Turkey and Brazil for enrichment and get, a year later, 120 kg worth of fuel rods for a medical-grade reactor, marks the end of the West’s ability to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear arsenal in a nonmilitary manner. Iran will still have enough uranium to make a bomb, it gets to keep on enriching uranium at home, and it can pull out of the deal if it feels its efforts are “not being respected.”
China and Russia are now off the hook regarding having to listen to pressure from the US to get on board with meaningful sanctions. The US is universally seen as having been upstaged by Brazil and Turkey. And other rogue aspirants to apocayptic arsenals are exponentially emboldened.
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05.12.10
Posted in Iran, Middle East, North Korea, World War III at 3:55 pm by Administrator
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, speaking in Tokyo where he is visiting, said that the shipment of over 30 tons of arms seized in Thailand last year was headed from North Korea to Hamas and Hizbollah. Says Iran and Syria wee helping to facilitate the transfer.
North Korea. That would be the same country that sank its next door neighbor’s ship last month with a torpedo.
TCM finds this whole scenario boring and bothersome. He wants to focus on fundamentally transforming the United States of America.
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05.04.10
Posted in Iran, Nuclear proliferation, UN at 12:22 pm by Administrator
The WSJ’s Bret Stephens on how disarmament fantasies work to Iran’s advantage. He starts his piece by noting the irony of the NYPD getting right on the case of the terrorist who dealt in propane and gasoline while providing escort protection to the terrorist who deals in enriched uranium and long-range missiles.
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05.03.10
Posted in Iran, Nuclear proliferation at 12:53 pm by Administrator
Keep America Safe’s Michael Anton has a piece at NRO today that is long but worth reading. He examines the full scope of the implications of letting Iran get a nuclear arsenal and then trying to contain it. By way of getting to his main examination, he looks at how the containment policy against the Soviet Union developed, starting with George Kennan’s 1947 Foreign Affairs essay. The Cold War period was characterized by a hair-trigger status quo, the necessity of pouring massive amounts of the nation’s resources into a security establishment (often known by the cliche Industrial-Military Complex), proxy wars that sometimes got quite hot, and the necessity of guaranteeing an umbrella to entire regions of the world.
He looks at what would be similar and different about containing a nuclear Iran. For one thing, 21st century Middle East is a very different place from mid-20th century Europe. There is also the different nature of Iran’s ideological zeal from that of the Soviet bloc’s Marxism.
I always admire thinkers who address the gaps in the common assumptions and conventional wisdom that get bandied about in the policy-wonk world. Anton is breathtakingly thorough in this regard.
With more and more pointy-heads tilting more discernibly to an attitude of resignation about where Iran is going, it is incumbent on us all to really think through what that is going to mean, and whether it’s worth it.
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04.21.10
Posted in Iran, Venezuela, World War III at 4:16 pm by Administrator
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard’s Qods force has a presence in many areas of the world, providing funds, arms and training to an array of bad guys. One place you can find it is Venezuela, where its involvement is increasing.
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04.18.10
Posted in Iran, National Security, Nuclear proliferation at 5:01 pm by Administrator
. . . makes it clear that this regime is completely winging it on the most pressing existential question facing America right now.
That’s right. TCM, the H-Word Creature et al are just hoping some kind of sanction or conciliatory gesture or mix of the two will make Iran’s nuclear program go away. That’s as far as they’ve really thought it out.
This, as is the case with all things TCM, is simultaneously pathetic and horrifying. All that blather about “smart power,” and all the term really meant was “Holy s—, I hope we don’t have to actually come up with ways to address this thing!”
That’s been the H-Word Creature’s approach, anyway. TCM’s take on it is, “Yawn. Can we get back to dismantling economic freedom now?”
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04.11.10
Posted in Iran, Nuclear proliferation at 2:31 pm by Administrator
The Iranian official who defected to spy for the CIA says our only option to avoid actual force is to cut off all – all – of Iran’s shipping lanes and airspace and issue a stern ultimatum about the nuke program. Of course, the mullahs would see that as an act of war anyway, which would set that scenario in motion. The other alternative: some nation (and we’re talking Israel, since the post-American regime won’t do it) taking out the intsallations.
There are no other choices.
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